“Coach Jack Del Rio States Raiders Greatest Need; How Well Do Experts Pick Mock Drafts? Who Will the Raiders Choose in the NFL Draft”

 

We are going to be kicking off our 18^th annual draft party in a few hours.  Oh the stories, the frustrations, the ribbing, and the hollow looks when a team picks someone puzzling.  This draft will definitely have those with so many questions.

How Many Picks Right Do Experts Usually Get In Their Mock Drafts?

On average, the best draft analyzers get 5 to 9 correct for their mock drafts each year.  Last year was one of Mel Kiper Jr.’s best getting 10 correct in the first round.  Todd McShay got 7 correct last year.  It also can get ugly.  I think it was 4 years ago that host Bob Fitzgerald on KNBR radio spent hours talking about Mel Kiper Jr. getting one right in the first round.

What does that mean?  It means these “insiders” know about as much as we do.  Do people really think a billion dollar NFL team is going to leak information through the press to their competitors?  Come on.

Stop the Offensive and RB Madness!:

Facebook has some good, smart Raider fans.  And Facebook has some that aren’t so hot but who are loud.  It shocked me again that for the 2^nd straight year many fans clamored for a RB.  Even with the signing of Marshawn Lynch, some still want to draft a RB preferably Christian McCaffrey.  Ridiculous.  The Raiders were #6 in rushing in the NFL last year and were #13 in passing yards.  Oakland was the #7 best scoring team in the NFL.  Panicking for a RB means you need to drink decaf from now on.  They don’t need another one.  On a passing team there isn’t enough balls to go around anyway and they are fine.

Some are losing their minds saying they need a right tackle.  In reality they do but there are free agent moves that can be taken.  Rosters are far from set in stone.  And the reality is every year most fans just worry about the offense but players can be picked up.

I’m sorry but this is the salary cap era.  You can’t have all pro’s at every position.  Wait until Carr and Mack get paid.  The luxury of spending big money on the Nate Allen’s, Sean Smith’s and Reggie Nelson’s of the world and seeing them struggle will be over.  Less cap space means you have to make fewer mistakes.  And don’t forget they are trying to pay Gabe Jackson who will get 7-8 million a year when he gets a huge raise.  Every team has weaknesses.  You just try to limit them.  This isn’t the 1970’s where you could have all pro’s everywhere.

The Raiders Dire Needs According to Jack Del Rio:

Here at Jaxville, we believe in one thing; facts.  And the facts are ugly.  Jack Del Rio said it again this week in the local media.  “The most glaring weakness we had was a lack of a push and pass rush up the middle.  We have to address that.”  The problem here is that this draft doesn’t have a for sure DT that can get to the QB, especially in the first round.

The Raiders also desperately need a MLB and a CB.  Some have said OLB TJ Watt from Wisconsin is the answer but he’s an edge guy and the Raiders are full of them.  Some have said just draft a CB in the first round.  In a draft chock full of them, I would say no.

The Raiders defense was:

-23^rd against the run

-32^nd in sacks

-24^th against the pass

-20^th in scoring defense

That is bad.  Doesn’t matter how good your offense is, that defense is not getting you far in the playoffs.  Every good offense the Raiders played had success against the Raiders last year, & some games were ugly.  The Patriots defense shut down Atlanta after half time in the Super Bowl.  Without that, the Pats comeback doesn’t happen.

Who Should Oakland Pick?:

Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr. are now both saying they feel the Browns are drafting NC QB Mitch Trubisky for the first pick.  He’s not a top player in my mind but the Browns QB situation is a train wreck.  The 49ers are lighting a candle for that to happen because then they get their edge pass rusher in Myles Garrett.  I’m not thrilled with any of the QB’s in this draft but if it happens, it could change a lot of picks.

For the Raiders, the wild card is Alabama LB Reuben Foster.  His off the field troubles aside, this guy can play and you can plug and play him at MLB from week 1.  How far will he fall?  He’s a thumper with instinct and speed to go from sideline to sideline.  If he somehow falls to the Raiders; which I highly doubt; you draft him yesterday.

The guy that I like is Florida MLB Jarrad Davis.  He’s a high character type of guy that the Raiders are stock piling.  He makes plays, is smart, plays while hurt, and has a lot of great leadership skills.  He’s not a great player, but he’s a very good one who can start right away and make a difference playing 3 downs.

Many have Zach Cunningham the MLB from Vanderbilt moving up but I’m not a huge fan of his.  He’s a good playmaker who fills the stat sheets but he is a finesse player.  Davis and Foster are thumpers where Cunningham is a solid tackler but when I saw him play he struggled at times against big, strong OL.  Even in the second round I don’t know if I get him.  The Raiders defense needs to get more physical and Davis and Foster are more physical than Cunningham.

The dilemma though is if Alabama OT Cam Robinson falls to the Raiders at #24.  Man, even though the defense isn’t very good, how do you pass up on Robinson?  If I’m drafting and Robinson is there, I would have issues not taking him.  He has 10 years at right tackle written all over him.

Defensive Backs:

This draft is packed full of quality DB prospects, especially at CB.  Sean Smith was an all pro with the Chiefs.  Take away KC’s pass rush and good safety play and he struggled in Oakland.  It took a year for the NFL to find out that David Amerson is good in short to mid passes but struggles with the deep ball.  And Reggie Nelson’s angles to the ball at times are unique let’s say.  Lots of missed opportunities on the field.

There are lots of CB prospects to choose from.  Tre’davious White the CB from LSU, or Kevin King the CB from Washington, or even ultra-athlete Adoree Jackson from USC, who is a little undersized.  The Raiders can also wait until the second or even third round to get a DB in a deep DB draft.  There is also a chance these guys won’t last that long.

Defensive Line:

Here is the issue; there aren’t any that are for sure studs and in fact I don’t think any warrant a first round pick.  The Raiders need a 3 down DT that can rush the QB and there isn’t anyone in the draft that is a super star in the making.

I hated the 2^nd round Jihad Ward pick last year and even though he started most games and played in every game, Ward was near invisible during the season with no sacks and no tackles for loss.  Your #2 pick needs to make a difference within the first 2 years so he has a lot to prove.  I just didn’t see this pick and never was overly impressed with him when he played for Illinois.

The guy that people are talking about as being a possible sleeper is DT Chris Wormley out of Michigan.  The Raiders should be able to get him in round two after picking an LB in round 1.  He’s another high character guy that is a coaches dream.  He works hard, and makes plays but many feel he can be better and underachieved with sloppy technique.  Some say he just needs more coaching to reach his potential.  It’s a risk.  Having 2 busts at DT would be a huge nightmare.

The guy that I think would be a good pick in round 2 is Auburns DT Montravius Adams.  At times he looks like a world beater and at other times he looks like he’s bored.  He lacks consistency and I think with Kahlil Mack and the leadership the Raiders have, this guy could become a good NFL player.  He’s big and athletic but doesn’t show up all the time.

Safety:

Karl Joseph is solid and looks to be a real stopper in the run game, and has potential to hold his own in the passing game, but the Raiders struggled at the other safety position.  The most popular Raider picks here could be Budda Baker out of Washington or Marcus Williams out of Utah.  Both would be good picks.  Obi Melifonwu out of Connecticut would be a solid pick as well in the first round.  He can play at CB as well.

What Will Oakland Do:

The Raiders need a pass rushing DT and an LB in the first 2 rounds.  There are no great DT’s so they should go LB in the first round.  The Raiders have shown a history of picking DB’s though when you least expect it and I think that might be the way they go.  I still cant’ get over picking DJ Hayden over DT Star Lotulelei years ago.  Reggie may want to right the DJ Hayden mistake.  If it were me though, a MLB would be the pick here.  The best one available out of the ones we mentioned but I have a feeling the Raiders would go DB which I think is a mistake with a draft so deep in CB talent.

How Are Your Picks?  Here are mine!:

I see a lot of bold predictors online who never keep track of their picks so there is never accountability.  As I said before, if I’m wrong all the time then don’t follow me.  My friends and I have kept track of our picks for going on 18 years.  We pick for the teams we like.  Below are the Raiders picks and mine.  Ok I picked Matt Leinart but I also picked Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Shaun Alexander & many others.  I want football players, not NFL combine warriors.  If you are bold enough to make picks, be bold enough to back the ones you miss and make.  Most don’t do that.  I want to be accountable but even the high profile guys try to hide their failures in the draft.

I’m ready to go; we are getting ready for the 18^th annual NFL draft party.  One round on day 1 isn’t enough, but it will have to do.  May all your draft picks be golden.  And have some fun.  Be a GM for a few days and jot your picks down on your computer.  The results may surprise you!

___________________________________________________

2000 Raiders pick:  Sebastian Janikowski K Florida St.

Jim’s Pick:  Shaun Alexander RB Alabama

(borderline hall of famer; only Seahawk MVP in a season; most yards rushing in Seattle history; 100 TD’s & only back w/4 consecutive seasons of at least 15 td’s; Seabass has been a long time good kicker; probably HOF someday; but I’d still rather have Alexander)

2001 Raiders pick:  Derrick Gibson DB Florida St. 

Jim’s Pick:  Kendrell Bell LB Georgia

(Bell was defensive rookie of the year & a key member of the Steelers but several bad knee injuries derailed his career.   Had to retire after 2007 season due to his knees.  Gibson is one in a long line of DB draft busts)

 2002 Raiders/Jim’s pick:  Phillip Buchanon CB Miami Fla.; Napoleon Harris LB Northwestern

(Neither panned out and were considered busts)

2003 Raiders pick:  Nnamdi Asomugha CB California; Tyler Brayton DE Colorado

Jim’s Pick:  Nnamdi Asomugha CB California; Boss Bailey LB Georgia

(Aso was very good; Bailey was an average player other than one year and Brayton was a solid backup with spurts of being a good starting player at Carolina)

2004 Raiders pick:  Robert Gallery T Iowa

Jim’s Pick:  Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh

(Fitzgerald is a future hall of famer.  Gallery was considered a bust at tackle but became a solid guard.  He never became the player the Raiders thought he would be.  Retired in 2012)

2005 Raiders pick:  Fabian Washington S Nebraska

Jim’s Pick:  Aaron Rodgers QB California

(Rodgers is a future hall of famer; I literally fell to the floor when they didn’t draft him)

2006 Raiders pick:  Michael Huff S Texas

Jim’s Pick:  Matt Leinart QB USC

(Leinart was a lazy party frat boy, bust; Huff was average with spurts of quality play; didn’t live up to the pick)

2007 Raiders pick:  Jamarcus Russell QB LSU

Jim’s Pick:  Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech

(Megatron is a future hall of famer; I was ripped apart by Raider fans for 2 years for hating the pick of Russell. By the time you prove you are right, no one cares anymore)

2008 Raiders/Jim’s Pick:  Darren McFadden RB Arkansas

(other than one year he could not stay healthy and never could equal his physical college style)

2009 Raiders Pick:  Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland

Jim’s Pick:  Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech

(A really dumb pick by the Raiders.  DHB was a bust as I predicted on draft day; Crabtree has had a good career; Stupid NFL combine 40 times got Al Davis again)

2010 Raiders/Jims Pick:  Rolando McClain LB Alabama

(emotional issues, bust)

2011 Raiders/Jims Pick:  Stefen Wisniewski C Penn St.

(2^nd Round; Raiders had no 1^st round pick)

(good at guard ok at center; lost to free agency)

2012 Raiders Pick:  Tony Bergstrom T Utah

Jim’s Pick:  Frank Alexander DE Oklahoma

(Raiders did not have a 1^st or 2^nd round pick)

(Both are backups; Alexander was suspended for 4 games for substance abuse)

2013 Raiders Pick:  DJ Hayden DB Houston

Jim’s Pick:  Star Lotulelei DL Utah

(Lotulelei is a key member of Carolina’s defensive rotation and he fell right into the Raiders lap.  As I said on draft day, Hayden was an awful pick)

2014 Raiders/Jims Pick:  Khalil Mack LB Buffalo

(Excellent pick/player)

2015 Raiders/Jims Pick:  Amari Cooper WR Alabama

(I fought with several Raiders Facebook groups who wanted Kevin White instead. Cooper has 2 pro bowls.  White has played in only 4 games in 2 years and in those games had only 19 catches in 35 targets and gained the Chicago media’s wrath; mmmm)

2016 Raiders/Jims Pick:  Karl Joseph S West Virginia

(Joseph had a nice rookie campaign especially against the run.  He may never be a great cover guy but he’s a thumper against the run, and makes plays).

“Raiders Off Season; Derek Carr & Kahlil Mack Contracts; Salary Cap; Who Stays, Who Goes”

It was a fun season for Oakland Raider fans but now the off season lull begins. I am extremely optimistic about the Raiders next season but there is work to do.  Let’s see if we can’t fill that void with early off season talk.

Salary Cap:

First off, if you are new to my writing my regulars would tell you I only write one way; honestly.  I’m not a homer and I don’t say what people want to hear.  I’m also not a hater.  I have the following I do because I respect the game and the readers.  I want to inform readers of all levels; whether you are new to the game and the Raiders or whether you know about schemes and techniques.  This is supposed to be fun and informative.

The salary cap was created by the NFL to create parity. The NFL felt that if they leveled the playing field and prevented dynasty’s, there would be more fan interest because different teams would be in the playoffs. Both Super Bowl teams from last year didn’t even make the playoffs this year.

Remember when Seattle won the Super Bowl? QB Russell Wilson was making under 1 million. His average annual salary is now 21.9 million. With that salary cap hit, they are struggling with their OL & depth at many positions. Well the Raiders are now in that same boat.

Last month the Raiders and Derek Carr both said that they wanted to finalize a deal in the off season. Carr is set to make 1.7 million in 2017. They were looking at a 4-5 year deal for 20 million a year. If the Raiders wait another year, they may get into a bidding war with teams and most feel the price would go up to 23-25 million per year.  Resigning players in their contract year is the smart thing to do.

In 2018 they now have to resign Kahlil Mack. He also is going to get a huge raise from his 4.6 million dollar average. The good thing is they can franchise him so they won’t lose him. Those are huge chunks taken out of the salary cap. Most that are looking ahead also think it’s near impossible for the Raiders to keep OL Gabe Jackson when his contract is up. He’s going to get a big raise from his 4 year average salary of 770k. Some think he’ll get around 7-8 million/year.

Derek Carr’s contract will dictate what the Raiders do in the off season.   The days of having a ton of money under the salary cap are gone. Seattle has done it right by emphasizing good drafts and player development through good coaching.  Raiders need to do the same.

The Reality:

The Raiders have to limit their busts. The Nate Allen’s and Sean Smith’s of the world can’t happen anymore.   The Jihad Ward and DJ Hayden draft picks can’t happen anymore (both picks that I took heat for from fans for hating them). If your 1^st, 2^nd, or 3^rd round draft choices aren’t starting within 2 years and at least playing fairly well, then they were not good picks.   Before the salary cap you could bench picks and let them learn over time. Those days are gone. The standards need to be high if you want to keep winning.  Let’s now look at each position.

Quarterbacks:

Derek Carr will be back and healthy after healing up from his injury. Matt McGloin’s meltdown in Denver pretty much sealed his fate.   He’s an unrestricted free agent (UFA) and he said he’d like a chance to start somewhere. Look for McGloin to sign elsewhere and Cook to be the backup.   I said it at the draft last year, I think Cook is a back up at best in the NFL and I’m not a huge fan of his but he’s ok.

Running Backs:

DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard at times really stole the show.   Both are explosive and can catch the ball. I don’t think either is a franchise back but they are very valuable in a RB by committee way which has been the trend in the NFL.

Latavius Murray is a nice back but he doesn’t thrill me at all. Some have said he’ll ask for 6-7 million a year.   If he wants a lot of money I let him go and pick up a free agent or a later round rookie power back. There are some steals that can be had in later rounds. I still like Jamize Olawale and I wish he’d get more carries. The Stanford RB “Christian McCaffrey to Oakland” in the second round rumors have already begun.

Wide Receivers:

The Raiders are set with Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. They both dropped a lot of balls this season though, including one each in the playoff game so hopefully that improves. I said it last year; Seth Roberts is not a good #3 and he also had the dropsies. The Raiders have the rights to Roberts but you wonder if they move on. Lower down the Raider needs list, adding a good #3 WR would be a plus. Andre Holmes has his moments and is solid at #4, but where he shines is special teams where he has become a big contributor. He’s an UFA but I think he’ll come back.

Offensive Line:

The engine of the Raiders.

I still remember Donald Penn being raked over the coals on social media by many Raider fans when he asked for a lot of money in his last contract.   Well he is worth it. He had his best year and didn’t allow a sack until Carr was hurt late in the season; and on that play he slipped.

The OL will stay intact but there will be some changes. Menelik Watson is an UFA and may not be resigned. He is hurt a lot and his play is sporatic.   Mike Tice loved Jon Feliciano; I didn’t. I still didn’t get drafting him and he hasn’t been great either. Look for some new faces backing up the starters next year.

Tight End:

It’s hard to evaluate the TE’s because the Raiders throw so little to them (Part of the reason I didn’t like Bill Musgrave’s offense). During the year they were always top 8 in catches v.s. targets.   When they were thrown too they usually caught the ball.

Clive Walford is a good blocker and pass catcher. Mychal Rivera is a good pass catcher but can’t block and may not be resigned. Lee Smith; a loss that no one brings up that was a big one; will be back after breaking his ankle in week 4. He is the best run blocking tight end in the NFL and can catch a ball or two when needed.

Defensive Line:

The great Woody Hayes once said when asked about the potential of his freshman QB Rod Gerald, “Potential? Potential means you ain’t no damn good yet!”. The Raiders can’t be enamored with potential anymore. They need results.

The Raiders were LAST; DEAD LAST in sacks. They also were last in yards per play (6.1). I said it last year and I’m saying it this year; clean house in the DL.   Stacy McGee and Denico Autry have shown glimpses of good play, but injuries and inconsistencies have limited their success. McGee is UFA and Autry is restricted. Raiders need to move on unless the price is right.

I ripped on the Jihad Ward draft pick and still don’t get it. He started 13 games this year and played in all 16; did anyone notice?   They drafted him too high but I would not have drafted him at all. You can’t miss on early picks in the salary cap era.

Dan Williams and Justin Ellis were bad this year and their days are numbered.

The best way to help your DB’s is to have a great pass rush. The Raiders have to sign or draft a DT that can put pressure on the QB.   Mario Edwards so far isn’t the answer either. He’s hurt too much and has had some good play but it’s still not a given he’ll be good. Aldon Smith? In my personal life I avoid high maintenance people or drama so this whole thing gives me a headache.

Linebackers:

The Raiders LB’s this year at times were awful. They could not cover tight ends and they struggled in the running game. Malcolm Smith gets lots of tackles but many are much more downfield than they would like. He usually is good in coverage but he struggled at times there too.   He’s never been great against the run; that’s why in Seattle he was not a 3 down LB; and he’s not now to be honest.   Do you resign him for big money? No.   Lesser money? OK. He along with Perry Riley Jr. are UFA. Riley Jr. played great when he was first picked up but his play tapered off the longer he was on the field. He’s an ok player but as a starter, he may not be the answer.

The Raiders need to sign a physical LB that can shore up the position and they still haven’t found that.

Defensive Backs:

Clean House. For years the Raiders have wasted a ton of money, draft picks and signings on DB’s to fix their defense and it hasn’t worked. I’d rather spend less money on them and more money on the DL. The Matt McGloin fan club has almost been as annoying as the DJ Hayden fan club. No he’s not a shut down corner.   No he’s not a great slot cover guy.   Let him go. It didn’t work and I said it when he was drafted; it was a bad pick and it’s time to move on.

When Raider fans last year had David Amerson as the king of the world while holding up Pro Football Focus stats, I said hold your horses and give it time. I was right. Amerson is good on outs and short to mid range passes but he struggles a lot against the long ball. He was burned often this year with the deep ball and it’s the reason he struggled at Washington. The poor play of the safeties didn’t help him either.

Nate Allen has been a bust. He and Reggie Nelson take so many bad angles it’s hard to watch. Allen is an UFA and I let him go. Bad signing. TJ Carrie is more of a backup and Keith McGill was very bad at times and his days may be numbered.

Karl Joseph struggled in pass coverage but did well against the run for the most part.   Hopefully a healthy year and experience will fix that but the Raiders are hoping he’s not injury prone.

Sean Smith was a huge bust. Many of the people ripping on Smith now were applauding his signing back then (see, being a GM isn’t so easy). Smith is tentative and I’ve never seen a guy give so much cushion near the end zone. A couple of writers said he needs better technique; huh? So he’s great for 3 years but he forgot everything the next? Come on.   The truth is Smith played on a team known for their pass rush and great safety play at Kansas City. He seems to need it and he gets neither in Oakland.   The Raiders are stuck with him for one more year at least; possibly two.

Coaches:

Jack Del Rio has done a good job but these dumb penalties still need to be fixed.  Also, the Raiders lifeless performance against Denver can’t happen.  Even if you lose your QB you still die hard.  Del Rio has said the standards need to be higher now and that’s a good sign.

I don’t know what else Ken Norton Jr. was supposed to do. He did a great job at Seattle but Seattle had players. The Raiders LB’s are not good and their DB’s are worse.   Then add the poor DT play. Their Safeties and LB’s flat out can’t guard TE’s.   They have the worst pass rush in the NFL. Love to see what genius can make that work. The Raiders agree with me and are bringing back Ken Norton Jr. for 2017.

Some Raider fans are clamoring for Wade Phillips to take over as DC. Only thing is, Denver was 28^th in the NFL against the run this year and it was one of the main reasons they struggled. What was different? Stud run stopper Malik Jackson signed with Jacksonville and LB Danny Trevathan signed with Chicago. The year before? Denver was #3 in the NFL against the run. Did Phillips forget how to stop the run? No. He didn’t have the same players.   Coaches help but some fans need to stop giving all the credit to the players when they win and then blame the coaches when their favorites don’t play well.

I wrote this article below when Bill Musgrave was signed and I flat out didn’t get it. The Raiders letting him go is a good thing. (Conservative; poor adjustments in game). The Raiders have the 2nd best OL in the NFL and great talent on offense.  They were #6 in the NFL in offense because of their great talent; not because of Bill Musgrave.

The only thing is they sure like to hire their friends.   Todd Downing goes from QB coach to OC.   Downing is a good friend of Mike Tice who hired Downing in the early 2000’s when he was coaching the Vikings.   He has very limited success up until now. Time will tell. Rookie OC’s don’t tear up the NFL either for the most part.

“Who is Bill Musgrave? The Raiders Hire a new Offensive Coordinator”

How to Keep the Success:

With Mack and Carr making so little money compared to others, the Raiders have had it easy.   Now the hard work comes in. The Raiders can still keep their success but they have to stop taking reaches on some draft choices and their signings have to be right on. They also can’t keep dead wood around if they aren’t getting the job done or staying healthy.

Like everyone else, the Raiders have holes to fill; mainly on defense. For me, DT, LB and DB should be addressed in that order.   Personally, the Allen’s, Murray’s and Malcolm Smith’s of the Raider world may have to go. Even if they are doing a fairly good to good job, it’s all about the salary cap and staying under it. Look for the chips to fall after they sign Derek Carr. This will be the most important off season for the Raiders in 15 years, and one of the most interesting.  It will be stressful but exciting to see what they do.

“GRADES: For The 1st Time in Social Media History, Raiders Playoff Posts; Next Up The Colts”

Michael Crabtree keeps his feet in bounds for a Raiders touchdown.

Final Oakland Raider Grades @ San Diego Chargers; Week 15:

San Diego Chargers  16 (5-9)

Oakland Raiders  19 (11-3)

A black hole in San Diego?  For one Sunday, yes there was.

For the first time in social media history, people could post that the Oakland Raiders were in the playoffs and be right. In what some in the San Diego media called, “The darkest hour in Chargers football history”, Oakland fans took over Qualcomm Stadium pretty much sealing the fate of the Chargers future playing in San Diego.   Even with a handful of delusional young Charger fans; and a even a few young Raider fans who just like to argue; trying to convince me there wasn’t that many Raiders fans in attendance, it was obvious this was a black out. It is now impossible to think San Diego will have a football team in the near future which is sad unto itself. I think with all of the politics, losing and moving talk, San Diego is done with the Chargers.  Below is a video that shows how the Raider turnout demoralized the Charger players and even the media!

http://www.mighty1090.com/2016/12/18/chargers-recap-humiliating-day-at-the-q-a-low-for-san-diego-sports/

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/chargers/sd-sp-chargers-raiders-game-20161218-story.html

Philip Rivers and the Chargers have had a history of 4^th quarter and second half fails and this was another one. Rivers is a good quarterback but when they say he’s great I shake my head. No he is not great.

Rivers also was disgusted and discouraged after the game. “This was like a road game. We had to use a silent count”. The Chargers went 21 minutes to end the game without scoring.

Quarterback:

Carr came alive in the 2^nd half again with 2 great throws zipping them across the field in tight coverage. He also had a nice pass to Crabtree for his only TD. Carr struggled at times though with the occasional pass rush again. He never really seemed to feel comfortable all game. He stared down his receiver in a terrible red zone interception and again had an off day.

GRADE: C+

Carr should have an easier time of it next week with a weak Colts defense, but to be honest the Chargers DB’s aren’t that good either. Carr was 19 for 30 for 213 yards with 1 TD and 1 interception. The Chargers sacked him twice and did a fairly good job at making him uncomfortable in the pocket.  Saying that I think Derek will come back strong against the Colts.

Running Backs:

The Raiders OL dominated at times and the run game was churning again. Murray, Richard and Washington combined for 145 yards on the ground with Murray leading the way with 81 yards. For the second straight week though, the RB’s were not a big part of the passing game. Murray’s fumble deep in Chargers territory can’t happen. Part of the lack of pass production was picking up blitzes from the Chargers but some wasn’t.

Grade B

Another solid game from this unit. I would like to see them more in the passing game though.

Offensive Line:

The Raiders did well in the run game and did good in the passing game. The Chargers did get 2 sacks though and even though they didn’t get to Carr often, they made him feel somewhat uncomfortable at times.

Grade B

A solid game from these guys but not the dominating performance in pass protection that has been the trademark of the Raiders OL. Carr goes as well as these guys go so their level of play needs to get better next week. They have spoiled Carr and Raider fans and have had a great year.  Look for a good game against Indy.

Wide Receivers:

The WR’s had a quiet day with only Michael Crabtree standing out. He made an amazing catch to keep his feet in bounds for a touchdown and was solid most of the day. Not much from anyone else though. Amari Cooper caught one electrifying long pass and run but that was it.

GRADE: C+

Carr was struggling but it was still a disappointing day against a bad and beat up defensive backfield.

Defensive Line:

Overall a good game.   The Raiders struggled a little early with San Diego using a quicker passing game, but in the 4^th when the Chargers seemed to abandon it, the Raiders put good pressure on Rivers and stopped the run. The final drive with Rivers looking deep downfield, the Raiders pass rush gobbled him up.

Grade: B+

A solid game from this unit. Denico Autry had a sack and 2 tackles for loss and had an overall good game. Mack was quiet until the last quarter and Bruce Irvin had one of his better games as a Raiders.

Linebackers:

What has been a weakness for the Raiders all year, the LB’s came out and played well against the Chargers.   Perry Riley Jr. had a key strip late and caused a fumble and they were fairly good in coverage.

Grade B+

One of this unit’s better games.

Defensive Backs:

Sean Smith was beaten by 5 yards deep for the long touchdown to Travis Benjamin. He also played too deep at the goal line allowing another TD on a slant to Hunter Henry. Dontrelle Inman also caught 5 passes for 68 yards. The Raiders DB’s have struggled against the long ball all year. Fast WR that can go long have been their weakness. Overall they did not play a bad game, especially in the second half.   David Amerson had two jarring tackles on crossing patterns.

Grade B-  

Another long pass for a touchdown but overall not a bad game from this unit; not a great one either.

Coaching:

First the Chargers.   I think head coach Mike McCoy must think they get 6 time outs a half; he uses them up like candy. Also he abandoned the quick passing game and they fell into the hands of the Raiders pass rush, especially on the last drive.   Just not getting what is going on in San Diego with their play calling especially in the 2^nd half of games.

The Raiders I felt should have run the ball a lot more. The Chargers could not stop the run and their soft DB’s literally seemed to be avoiding blocks in the first half. Del Rio won a challenge on a spot play which helped get a first down.

Grade B

Give the Chargers credit; they did have a nice goal line stand and stopped Murray on a 3^rd and short but the Raiders got 145 yards on the ground and should have run more.

Special Teams:

Janikowski was perfect and King was ok, struggling at times to punt inside the 20. The coverage team was good and the return game didn’t do much.

Grade B+

A solid day from this unit.

Conclusion:

Raiders should celebrate for a day and then get back to work which I think they will. This defense doesn’t scare anyone though and still rank 27^th in passing, 29^th in yards per catch, 27^th in sacks, and 25^th in run defense. And they aren’t playing offenses like Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas. Still lots of work to do.  A good gutsy win in front of a lot of Raider fans was a site to behold.

Next Week the Indianapolis Colts:

With the Patriots final 2 games being against the Jets and a Dolphins team that will probably be without their starting QB, they look to be the first seed team in the AFC. If that happens it’s important for the Raiders to keep winning and that won’t be easy.

Next week the Raiders host the Colts. Andrew Luck has been on fire and they’ve actually begun protecting him some. Their OL has struggled all year at times being a sieve, and their defense has struggled more.

Indy’s defense has been bad. They are 28^th against the pass and 21^st against the run. They have an average pass rush (17^th in the league).

On offense their OL is ranked 29^th in sacks and Andrew Luck has been running for his life most of the year.   Look for Mack and Irvin to have a big day. Indy does a lot of 5 and 7 step drop passes and that should give the Raiders enough time to get to Luck.   Luck is a gun slinger and will take chances so 1-2 picks is my best bet. Don’t underestimate him though. Even with a bad offensive line he can carve up any defense in the NFL.   The Colts on paper don’t look to be a great team but they are dangerous and are still in the playoff hunt in a fairly weak division.

The Raiders match up well against Indy and I see a high scoring affair with Indy not being able to stop the Raiders and the Raiders occasionally shutting down Indy’s offense. It should be a good day for Oakland in the friendly confines of the Coliseum.  Raiders are in for a dog fight and can’t take anyone lightly.  Then on to the cold in Denver.

Jims Jamz:

The Raiders ended a drought that was the worst stretch of win/loss football in the history of the NFL. Those that stood by the Oakland Raiders deserve to savor this.   The lows were very, very low.   The terrible drafts that some fans tried to defend; the crazy coaching hires that some fans said would bring them back; and the bad free agent signings are all a thing of the past.   Those that have endured the pain for years can finally smile.  Those that used to pretend, can now be real and look at the truth again. Oakland is in the playoffs.

It’s imperative that the Raiders win out the rest of the way. Winning on the road twice in the playoffs in possible cold weather would be quite a chore.

And the Raider luck or magic; depending on what you believe; continued in 6F weather in Kansas City. In a game that the Chiefs seemed to be looking ahead to Denver, they were stunned by the Tennessee Titans. Alex Smith disappeared in the second half just like in the Raiders game, and this helped Tennessee get back into it.

Titans kicker Ryan Succup; a former Chief; missed a last second 53 yard kick so the Chiefs win, right? Wrong; Head Coach Andy Reid called a time out right before the kick allowing Succup to readjust and kick the winning field goal as time ran out. A 53 yarder in 6F weather.   Wow! This allows the Raiders to have first place in the AFC West all to themselves.

Some fans always complain about front running fans when a team starts winning and yes, people come out of the woodwork to get on the band wagon; especially younger fans. Just look at the Warriors. So bandwagon fans if you jump on board make sure to get drinks and food for the regulars first.  It’s about seniority.

It was a nice come from behind win in San Diego that shores up a spot in the post season. Raider fans invaded a stadium like no other fan base I’ve ever seen. And for the first time in social media history, Oakland fans aren’t being laughed at for crazy predictions or hope of the post season. They don’t have to talk of the past; it’s the present.

You may see some Raider fans pinching themselves today, but don’t judge them.  They just wan’t to make sure it’s not a dream. They’ve been through a lot to get here.

“GRADES: Raiders Lose In Kansas City: Why Things Are Not as Bad as You Think In Oakland”

Final Oakland Raider Grades @ Kansas City Chiefs; Week 14:

Kansas City Chiefs  21 (10-3)

Oakland Raiders  13 (10-3)

In a cold winter night that resembled days of old, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Raiders 21-13. Maybe traveling Raiders fans knew something when a flight from Oakland to Kansas City actually ran out of alcohol serving thirsty fans; this would be a tough one.  The Raiders lost to the Chiefs and went from the #1 seed to the #5 seed in a NY minute.

http://www.sfgate.com/raiders/article/Airplane-Raiders-fans-Kansas-City-no-alcohol-10784175.php

Maybe though it was having 3 turnovers in KC territory and ending up with only 6 points from it. Maybe it was a bad day for the offense and Derek Carr.  The Raiders found out living on the edge against bad to average teams is a lot easier than magical comebacks against a good team like the Chiefs.

Quarterback:

I thought annoying Cris Collinsworth was going to start a Gofundme account for Derek Carr’s pinkie.  His over dramatics make Jack Buck seem pleasant.  Carr was interviewed after the game by ESPN and others and he said he was fine.  Funny how he was fine against Buffalo and now some fans have him near death.  Carr said he wasn’t cold and his hand felt so good he didn’t even wear a glove.  “I just had a bad game”.

Carr is now 1-5 against the Chiefs and in the last 2 games at Arrowhead he has been off target amazingly on 29 passes.  This wasn’t a one time thing.  Why do they have his number?  In the first game the Chiefs blitzed constantly.  In this game with Justin Houston back they didn’t have to.  Since high school Carr’s weakness is throwing under pressure.  For most of the year he hasn’t had any pressure.  Kansas City’s pass rush had him off balance all night.  Carr floated 2 long passes that were wide open; too much loft.

Since last year against Minnesota, some teams try to take away the deep ball by playing 2 deep zone; the safeties playing back to protect the CB’s.  Kansas City has done that a lot against Carr.  When you don’t have to blitz to get a pass rush it makes it even more successful.

GRADE: D-

Carr was 17 for 41 for 117 yards with no TD’s or interceptions.  In 2 games against KC he has 1 TD pass.  NOT a coincidence.  There were several times when KC was a sucker for a screen and I thought Carr didn’t audible as well as he has in past games.  Just a bad day all around.

Running Backs:

The second the Chiefs leader LB Derrick Johnson blew out his Achilles heel, the Raiders run game excelled.  The Chiefs really don’t have a solid LB backup to replace Johnson and it showed.  Latavius Murray ran for over 100 yards and the Raiders avg. 4.3 yards a carry for RB’s.  Not a bad night with 135 yards.

Grade B-

The Raiders RB’s never got too involved in the passing game which hurt the Raiders.  Part of that was Carr but it was an issue.

Offensive Line:

When I wrote last week that the Raiders offensive line was the co MVP of the NFL some laughed.  No one’s laughing now.  When they don’t protect Carr well, he struggles.

With Cris Collinsworth’s dramatics about Keleche Osemele not playing, you would have thought the Raiders should just forfeit and give up.  The Raiders run game rushed for 135 yards without him.  In the passing game at times they struggled protecting Carr which is job 1 for this unit and that’s where he was really missed.  Carr was flushed out of the pocket for much of the night and was uncomfortable for most of the game.

Grade C

Just like in the first game, Carr was forced out of the pocket and had to throw quicker than he wanted to.  Not a bad game on the ground but the pass protection didn’t cut it.

Wide Receivers:

The television media sure isn’t saying much, but on the long pass to Amari Cooper, many KC Chiefs fans online have said that it was obvious that the ball hit a wire coming from the tv camera that floats around the stadium for better views.  They didn’t say a word during the game about it.  Cooper said he was ready to catch it and then suddenly it just dropped straight down.

Overall a tough game.  With Carr being off and catches being dropped, this was the worst passing game for the Raiders.  Seth Roberts dropped 2 passes in the red zone and Crabtree and Cooper had their issues too.  Bad game all around.

GRADE: D-

The worst game of the year for this unit.

Defensive Line:

Overall a good game.  The Raiders obviously made it a point to stop the run and they did.  Dan Williams clogged the middle and Justin Ellis even pitched in.  Bruce Irvin did have his issues at times against the run but the Raiders pass rush was pretty good with Kahlil Mack causing another turnover.

Grade: B+

One of their better games.  Even with the Chiefs quick passing game and getting only 1 sack on the night, the Raiders put pressure on Alex Smith often.

Linebackers:

Another rough game.  The Raiders plan for TE Travis Kelce was to put a LB on him and then if needed have a Safety give help.  The help was often not there or late and Kelce over matched the LB’s.  They played better in the run game this week but part of that was the excellent play of the DL.

Grade C

The Raiders had to stop Kelce and they didnt.

Defensive Backs:

All year David Amerson has struggled against fast WR who can go deep.  He was burned again this week.  In the medium to short passes he’s good; the deep ball though; not so much.

TJ Carrie seems to have gotten his confidence back; he had 2 solid plays and a key interception that helped the Raiders get back into the game.  The safeties again struggled with help on deep balls.  Nate Allen’s angles were as bad as Nelson’s have been.  Alex Smith was 3-3 on passes 30 yards or longer.  Again, Alex Smith.

Grade C  

The Raiders defense was torched in the 1^st half but played better in the second including the DB’s.

Coaching:

The Raiders need to come out no huddle right from the beginning.  Against Buffalo and in other comebacks, the no huddle has been highly successful.  Why not use it early? You can’t expect to start slow every game and come back and win. Punting to Tyreek Hill at all was another head scratcher.

The worst blunder though was with 2:06 to go in the game with 3^rd and 1 at the KC 14. Instead of running the ball the Raiders threw to Andre Holmes in the corner which was well defended.  On the next play Austin Howard commits a penalty and now it’s 4^th and 6.  Pass defended to the left side; game over.  The Chiefs without Johnson could not stop the run anymore and to not run the ball was a huge mistake.  There was plenty of time and the Raiders had 2 time outs.  The Raiders on their last drive ran the ball 6 times for 30 yards. You can’t run the ball twice for 1 yard?

Grade D+

All Jack Del Rio’s jokes about the Raiders penalties didn’t seem so funny anymore.  Austin Howard’s penalty on the last drive really hurt them.  They have to start better on offense; go no huddle immediately.

Special Teams:

Janikowski was perfect on the night but then it got ugly.  Jack Del Rio admitted that the Raiders were trying to punt to the left but then Marquette King kicked the ball in the middle of the field and Tyreek Hill ran the punt back for a TD against only 4 defenders.  Travis Kelce’s riding the horse dance in front of King was loved by the media and Chiefs fans alike.  The Raiders gave up 172 yards in the return game and their own return game was invisible.  Worst game of the year for this group.

Raiders long snapper Jon Condo had a poor snap that was muffed by Marquette King which cost the Raiders 3 points.  King didn’t do a good job of securing it either.

Grade D

Janikowski good; everything else a train wreck.

Conclusion:

Alex Smith is 9-1 in games against the Raiders and Derek Carr is 1-5 against KC.  Until the Raiders can solve the Chiefs quick passing game and keep defenders off of Carr, this trend will continue.

Why This Loss Isn’t as Bad As First Thought:

Dry your eyes Raider fans.  Let’s look at why this loss isn’t as bad as you think.

First, to the fans that said it was too cold for the Raiders to play well, I’m sorry but that is ridiculous.  Al Davis didn’t say “Just Win Baby Unless It’s Cold”.  The weather was a steady 20F and if you can’t play in cold then you are not going to do much in the post season.  KC torched the Raiders in the first half.  Funny how the cold didn’t hurt them.

No, Derek Carr’s finger wasn’t falling off.  He just had a bad game.  Against Buffalo he was just fine.  In Kansas City he was harassed all night; it happens.  Even Carr said he was fine and they will bounce back.

DENVER:  Denver has the hardest schedule in the NFL the last 4 weeks.  They go to Tennessee Sunday and then host New England.  They also have to go to Arrowhead on Christmas day and then host the Raiders on New Years day.  Hard to think with their struggles with run defense and QB that they will sweep.

KANSAS CITY:  KC has an easier road but they are not the same team without LB Derrick Johnson.  If people think they are going to stop the run with backup LB’s and hybrid safeties playing in the middle, they are crazy.

The Chiefs have Tennessee and DeMarco Murray at home next week; they host Denver and then they are on the road to SD who were destroying them in week 1 until the Philip Rivers express swallowed the olive late in the game.  If Denver concentrates on their run game, I see the Chiefs losing to Denver.

RAIDERS:  The Raiders lick their wounds and travel to SD.  They’ve won 3 in a row there and tend to score at will against the Chargers who have given up over 30 points in the last 3 meetings in San Diego.  It won’t be easy but its very winnable.  They then host the Colts who have little to no defense and a poor OL but they also have Andrew Luck who can carry them to a win against anyone. Then the game in Denver on New Years Day.  Yes it will be cold.

Jims Jamz:

Obviously you go week by week (save the emails) but for the sake of looking ahead, Denver probably loses at least another game and the Raiders should win at least 2 of those games. Again SHOULD. I see the worst case scenario is that the Raiders finish 1 game behind or tied with KC.  If that happens the Raiders will be in the playoffs.  I don’t see KC sweeping but there is a possibility because they always play Denver tough and have already beaten them once on the road.  I just think the Broncos will gut out a win with no Johnson at LB. They can’t look past the running game of Tennessee.

Outside of New England; just like most of the NFL; the rest of the AFC just isn’t very good.  Houston is tied for first place in the AFC South at 6-6 with a -50 point differential!

Look for a big game from the Raiders in San Diego.  They weren’t ready for prime time yet and that was a bad loss in KC, but a Chargers game is just what they need.

During times like these, fans either throw players under the bus or blindly make excuses. The Raiders will do neither.  They will own up that they lost, and will come back with a great effort next week.  If my scenario rings true and Denver beats KC, then the Raiders can win the west in Denver on the last game of the year.  Wow won’t that be fun. Get ready for a wild ride.  The fun is just beginning and with every week, comes a new story and scenario.  Even after a bad loss, I’m sure for Raider fans this sure beats NFL draft talk this time of year.

“GRADES: The Raiders With Another Stirring 2nd Half Comeback; Looking Ahead to Kansas City”

Final Oakland Raider Grades v.s. Buffalo Bills; Week 13:

Buffalo Bills  24 (6-6)

Oakland Raiders 38 (10-2)

In another fun day in Oakland, the Raiders came back and beat a tough Buffalo Bills team 38-24.  In a game that was up and down; a lot like most Raider games this year; the Raiders now will go onto key road games in the AFC West.  The Bills have beaten only one team with a winning record and that was against a 3rd string QB against the Patriots during Tom Brady’s suspension.

Co-MVP’s: 

I like Derek Carr.  In fact I watched him twice in person when he was at Fresno St. and I lauded his draft pick before Raider fans even knew who he was.  But the Raiders pattern of winning; and their winning in general is lead by someone else.

The co-MVP of the NFL this year is the Raiders and Dallas Cowboys OL.  College fans remember Dak Prescott with some pretty bad epic fails for MSU late in games in the SEC.  He had a rep for it.  But behind that OL in Dallas; the best in the NFL; and one of the best running games in the NFL and they give Dak all day to throw and succeed.

There is a saying; give an average QB time to throw and he will be good.  Give a very good QB time and he will be great.  Prescott & Carr are loving it.  They’ve played great all year. The Raiders OL is wearing out teams in the second half.  Do you think it’s a coincidence that the Raiders offense starts to get going in the mid to the end of the third quarter?  No it’s not.  The Raiders huge, physical OL is wearing teams out over time.  Opponents get some pressure on Carr in the first half; Carr and the offense struggles; and then they go off in the second half with Carr having all day to throw.  NOT a coincidence.

Media Blowing it Big Time:

Where is the outrage at another failed season by media darling Rex Ryan?  After the Bills got the 2 TD lead what does Ryan do?  He goes Wildcat!  How genius.  Your team is making almost 8 yards a run and you now become one dimensional bringing up the Raiders safeties.  Then in the next 10 plays after getting their 15 point lead, they use one of the worst passing QB’s in the NFL; Tyrod Taylor; passing 6 out of the next 10 plays.  Are you kidding me?  Too many ex-jocks who are analysts who don’t want to make waves.

I’m sorry; but if Rex Ryan and Rob Ryan were my coaches, I would need counseling.  Buffalo has no QB but because Taylor can run and is athletic, the media like him.  Buffalo’s front 7 on D and run game are really good but they are going nowhere with their QB and head coach leading the way.

Quarterback:

Carr had another great second half.  His throws were crisp and on target.  Derek Carr didn’t have all day to throw in the first half and the Raiders offense struggled at times.  He had all day to throw in the second half and he torched the Bills ordinary secondary.  Again; NOT a coincidence.  Carr is playing at a high level but his level is higher when he’s not touched.

GRADE:  A-

Slow start, fast finish.  Carr is on fire!

Running Backs:

The Raiders running backs ran for 139 yards at a 4.3 clip.  Another solid if not spectacular game by a good group.  Jalen Richard is now the #2 back for sure getting 9 carries.

Grade B +

A good, solid game by this group.  What is impressive is their ability to pick up blitzes.  Their pass blocking is unnoticed by everyone but Carr and the coaches.  Excellent job.

Offensive Line:

Same stuff different day.  They are physically wearing teams out into submission.  Another half of dominance.  Carr had no one near him in the second half.  Only Dallas has a better group.

Grade A

Donald Penn STILL has not given up a sack all year.  That is unreal.  These guys are the key to the success of the Raiders.

Wide Receivers:

Amari Cooper, Seth Roberts and Michael Crabtree had drops.  They redeemed themselves in the second half and had another excellent finish. Tight End Mychal Rivera had another solid game, catching 3 passes for 57 yards and Clive Walford added another for 18 yards.  The Raiders have to use their Tight Ends if they are going to do any damage in the playoffs.

GRADE:  B +

Carr has a lot of solid weapons and he used all of them against a game Bills squad.  A good day all around for the receiving core.

Defensive Line:

A tale of two cities.  First the bad.  That was the worst run defensive performance in the NFL this year.  The Raiders gave up 212 yards at 7.1 yards a carry.  Those are high school numbers.  I’m still not getting Jihad Ward.  He was not a factor in the run game.  He did have one sack but even that one wasn’t all on him.  Not counting the sack he had no other tackles.  It’s not just him; this DL doesn’t get penetration in the run game.

On the pass rushing side, with the offense staying on the field, a rested group came after the QB with abandon.  They ended up with 4 sacks and 2 key plays from Kahlil Mack who’s slow start is forgotten.  Mack is on fire right now and has 10 sacks on the year.  He did get fooled on 2 read option plays but otherwise he had a great game.

Grade: C+

The run defense was a joke.  The pass rush though played well in the second half.  I’m in a generous mood I guess because of the holidays.

Linebackers:

Watching tape of this game was hard.  I’ve never seen a group make so many tackles 5-10 yards downfield against the run.  Malcolm Smith was pancake blocked twice and Jihad Ward was pushed around.  Perry Riley Jr. was active and made a lot of tackles but few were really productive.  The Raiders only had 4 tackles for loss all game and 3 were sacks.  Not good.

Grade D+

The LB’s were physically beat up this game.

Defensive Backs:

It was funny watching Bills WR Sammy Watkins frustration yesterday.  On three occasions he threw up his hands when Bills QB Tyrod Taylor missed him on pass plays.  He was open for big plays twice but the passes weren’t near him.  Taylor is not a good passer and it’s hard to know if it was the defense or Taylor that limited the Bills passing game.  Probably both.  TJ Carrie played better as the game went on, regaining the confidence that had left him.  Amerson was beaten for moderately long passes twice but Taylor missed badly on both.  Amerson is good in short to mid range passes and struggles against fast WR that can go deep.  Tough game to judge.

Grade B  

Not a bad day by this unit, but it was against a bad QB.

Coaching:

It’s not hard to out coach Rex Ryan but the only thing that stood out was the Raiders running read option plays with Carr.  Carr is not particularly fast and even though his pinky situation is beyond overly dramatic (I’ve had that happen to me twice in basketball games; many have had it happen; I never missed any time) if a team in the NFL loses their starting QB, there goes the season.  Carr should NOT be running the ball unless it’s while being rushed.

Grade B-

Don’t run Carr.

Special Teams:

Sebastian Janikowski had a solid day.  The Raiders didn’t have many opportunities in the return game.  Marquette King had a good day punting with 2 inside the 20 including one late in the game.  King seems like a nice guy but his need for attention is getting to be a bit much.  I guess if you are a young Raider fan you love the flag routine but getting a penalty isn’t what you want from your punter.  What’s next, an onfield selfie while planking or doing the mannequin and cinnamon challenge?  Not getting it Marquette.

Grade A-

Solid game all around.

Conclusion:

The Raiders OL wears down another opponent; gives the defense lots of rest time late, and they get another win.  The Bills are near out of the playoff picture now and to be honest with that coaching staff and QB they are not going anywhere anytime soon anyways.

Kansas City Chiefs:

Ah the winter months.  The Raiders will play Thursday night in Kansas City.  Snow is predicted for Wednesday, and Thursday nights prediction is for a high of 27 and a low of 13.  Some forecasters say the snow may linger into Thursday and it may get into single digits.  Predicting weather for cold states is a crap shoot but if you are a fan traveling to Arrowhead, prepare for cold and lots of it.  (For fans going, the Chiefs have announced they are opening the parking lots at noon).

Now the fun starts.  The Raiders will play 3 of 4 on the road.  The Raiders are winning but they still have holes big time on defense.  Let’s be real though.  EVERY NFL team has holes.  The days of the 1970’s super teams are definitely over with the salary cap era.

The Chiefs have owned the Raiders in recent years.  Their QB Alex Smith has a 6-1 record as a QB against the Raiders.  Their pass rush and blitzing dominated the Raiders early in the season.  Carr struggled mightily in maybe his worst game of the year 26-10.  What’s worse is now star pass rusher Justin Houston is back and he’s getting healthier and better every day he plays.  Add new pass rusher Dee Ford who is tied with Kahlil Mack with 10 sacks, and an aging Tamba Hali, and one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL now is one of the better ones.  Eric Berry had 2 huge interceptions including a return of a missed 2 point conversion which won the game for the Chiefs.  They too have had a magical season.  The Chiefs have given up a lot of yards this year but their D tightens up in the red zone.

Last week against Atlanta, coach Andy Reid played very aggressively.  Fake punts, throwing deep; it was way out of his nature.  In the the last months though, Alex Smith has struggled.  The Ichabod Crane of the NFL has thrown 2 interceptions in the last 4 weeks.  If you are going to play scared and conservative to not turn the ball over, then don’t turn the ball over.  Smiths play will dictate a lot of the game.  The often injured Jeremy Maclin is questionable against the Raiders but lightning fast Tyreek Hill has been a huge weapon alongside steady WR Albert Wilson.  Add one of the best TE in the game in Travis Kelce alongside a capable rushing attack and the Chiefs on offense can do some damage.

Look for both teams to try and establish a running game in the cold weather, and if by chance it snows, FG kicking will play a big part in this one with both teams have solid kicking games.

Outlook:

I know the fans are excited and that is fun to see, but this is the game that really is going to show where the Raiders are.  Beating bad to average teams like Carolina and Buffalo with stirring comebacks is fun and exciting but it isn’t exactly championship stuff.  Beating the Chiefs and Broncos on the road in the cold is though.  Will the Raiders take control of the division or will they be swept by KC?  This game will go a long way to seeing how the Raider season may end up.  If they win, a division title is almost certain.

“GRADES: The Raiders Make it Official by Beating Denver; They Are Back”

Oakland Raiders’ Latavius Murray (28) leaps to score a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in the fourth quarter of their NFL game at the Coliseum in Oakland, Calif., on Sunday, Nov. 6, 2016. The Raiders defeated the Broncos 30-20. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)

 

Final Oakland Raider Grades v.s. Denver Broncos; Week 9:

Denver Broncos  20 (6-3)

Oakland Raiders  30 (7-2)

The Raiders came through in a near must win situation, beating the Denver Broncos at home. It was a physical pounding of the Super Bowl champs that was loved by all in attendance.   Oakland had only played 2 teams with winning records all year and both ended up in losses at home. To go 0-3 against teams with winning records; all at home; would have been a hard pill to swallow.

Overview:

The offensive line flat out dominated this game.

Quarterback:

Statistically this was one of Carr’s worst games of the season but this is against the Broncos and it was no where near as bad as the numbers suggest. The success of the running game also limited him.  Carr was steady and accurate and didn’t make the mistakes that have plagued him against the Broncos in the past. Against good offensive teams though, the Raiders can’t settle for field goals in the red zone.

GRADE: B

Carr was 20 for 31 for 184 yards with no TD’s or interceptions. He missed on some passes but there were only a few issues that he had. Raider fans cringed when they shockingly called a pass with less than 8 minutes to go in the game and Carr made a horrible throw that was intercepted. The referees looked at it and reversed their decision because it hit the ground. Carr has to throw that away or throw to a place where only his guy can catch it. Better yet just run the ball.

Running Backs:

SO SICK of NFL ex jocks who are now sportscasters saying the Raiders can’t run the ball. The Raiders are now #4 in the NFL in rushing yards and #3 in rushing touchdowns. The Raiders running game is just fine thanks.

Latavius Murray had his best game of the year and everyone contributed. Jalen Richards looked like a rocket when hitting the hole. The Raiders offensive line is an excellent one playing at a high level and the running game is doing well.

Grade A

A thing people don’t talk about is the excellent pass blocking by the running backs when picking up the blitz. Good all around game by everyone.

Offensive Line:

Derek Carr is going to have to come up with more than big screen tv’s for presents for his OL this Christmas. The Raiders have only allowed 11 sacks all year and he’s the best protected QB in the NFL.

Round 1 against Denver goes to the Raiders OL. Dallas and Oakland have the best OL’s in the game right now and both of their QB’s are playing great. Not a coincidence. The Raiders are #3 in passing and #4 in rushing offense. A dominating performance with over 200 yards on the ground. Denver got 2 sacks but they didn’t affect the game much.

Grade A+

The OL is the key to the Raiders. Carr and the other offensive weapons get all the credit but this is the engine of the team. This OL is the “HEMI” of the NFL.

Wide Receivers:

Nothing really special from this group but a solid game. Andre Holmes made an amazing one handed catch of a ball thrown behind him.   Even with Denver’s injuries at DB, the Raiders were held under 200 yards passing. They did their job and it helped win the game.

GRADE: B

A solid game.

Defensive Line:

Kahlil Mack had a great game and his slow start is a thing of the past. The pass rush overall was good all game as the DL put pressure on Broncos QB Trevor Siemian. Siemian struggles a ton when he’s rushed and it showed all game. Denver showed the same arrogance as last year, for the most part not trying to double team Mack and they paid for it.

The Broncos only ran 12 times and the Raiders did well to stop the run. They miss CJ Anderson. Siemian at times is a train wreck and no one has stepped up at RB.   Denver’s offensive line is very inconsistent and the Raiders took advantage of it.

Grade: A

Is the Raiders DL great; not a chance. But for this game they played great and was a breath of fresh air for a group that has struggled this year.

Linebackers:

The LB’s were very active.   Other than the long catch and run by RB Kapri Bibbs (wow was that an ugly play for the Raiders), this group played well.

Grade B+

Overall solid game.

Defensive Backs:

The pass rush definitely helped this group and they had a solid game.   Karl Joseph was fooled on 2 play action passes; one he was beaten for a TD; which shows he’s still learning the game.   Overall a solid game though. Siemian’s pathetic accuracy didn’t hurt either.

Grade B+  

This was one of their better games.

Coaching:

The Broncos had a bizarre game plan, concentrating on the passing game when it’s obvious QB Siemian is limited. Another coaching staff outthinking themselves. The Raiders took advantage of this by really going after the QB.

It was a bad decision to allow Carr to throw the ball late in the game which almost lead to an interception when it was obvious Denver could not stop the run. The Raiders need to be smarter. Just run the clock out.

They greatly improved their sloppy play from the previous 8 weeks where they lead the NFL in penalties and set a record against Tampa Bay. On a side note the game has definitely changed and there are so many pass interference penalties in the NFL that it can be hard to watch sometimes.   There is a reason passing records are falling like stars in the sky in the NFL and college game.  With the NFL rules, Mama don’t let your babies grow up to be DB’s.

Grade B+

Solid game plan against a bad run defense and limited offense.

Special Teams:

Janikowski is showing that it’s a lot different hitting 50 yard field goals in the first half of games on a losing team, than it is on a winning team trying to make the playoffs. He missed again this week. King had a solid game; could do without the Cam Newton dance party after his punts, but overall a solid game by King. Field position played a key role in the first half. The coverage team did a good job and the return game was nothing special.

Grade B+

A solid game other than the blip from Janikowski.

Conclusion:

I’ve been saying it all week. This is not a great team in Denver. They have an inconsistent OL, a QB that can throw long but not much else; and a defense that was 25^th against the run coming into the game and is now 30^th in the NFL after the Raiders game. Denver has had a lot of injuries and other than Marshall, their LB play isn’t the same.   The injury to CJ Anderson really hurt this team. The Raiders match up great against them. Last year the Raiders didn’t allow a bad Denver offense a TD in both games.

The game plan was good and the Raiders showed they can beat a good team. They are now on a bye week. They haven’t won anything yet though and the season is a long one so there is still work to do. They are now 1-2 against teams that presently have winning records, and those two teams had something Denver hasn’t got; good offenses. The Raiders still have holes on defense.

This was a game I thought they had to get and they did. The OL completely dominated and showed why the Raiders are doing so well this year. It was a fun night for all.

Outlook:

Tomorrow I will break down the AFC West and look at each team. The Raiders are in great shape but they still have to play each AFC west team on the road. They will next go to Mexico against Houston and even though Carolina isn’t that good this year, it will still be a tough game. Kansas City has dominated Oakland and San Diego with a pass rush is now much improved.  No one is talking about the Chiefs but they aren’t going away.   Denver is still Denver especially at home.  It should be a fun second half of the season, but for now, take 2 weeks off Raider fans to celebrate; you’ve earned it.

“Who Will Now Be The Oakland Raiders #1 Draft Pick After Their Latest Signing”

With the signing of ex Cincinnati safety Reggie Nelson, the Raiders filled another hole in their defense that needed to be addressed.  In another cap friendly contract the Raiders get a solid run defender who is also fairly good against the pass.  His high amount of interceptions is a good and bad thing; proves he can get interceptions but it also proves teams are not afraid to throw at him.  He’s going to be 33 in September and that is probably the reason he didn’t get the money he wanted in free agency.

Trading Up:

Someone asks me every week on Twitter why the Raiders don’t ever trade up.  For the most part it’s because it’s not smart all the time.

Unless you need that one player to put you over the top, it’s not a good idea.  Most teams that trade up get burned.  Bill Belichick and the Patriots have been fleecing teams for years.  I still remember the 2013 trade when the Vikings thought they were a WR away from being good.  They traded a #2, #3, #4, & a #7 for New England’s #1 pick.  At the 29^th spot they chose Cordarrelle Patterson.  While he’s been a fine return guy, he is now 5^th on the WR depth chart and caught 2 passes all of last year.  Four picks for a 5^th string WR.

The Bills; overestimating their talent; sent their #9 overall pick in the first round along with a #1 and a #4 in 2015 to Cleveland to pick #4 overall in the 2014 draft to get talented WR Sammy Watkins.  Watkins is good but I didn’t get that trade because the Bills had holes in their offensive line, QB and a few more on the defensive end.

Ron Wolf was never a huge fan of trading the first round pick either at Oakland or Green Bay, so I find it hard to think McKenzie will do it.  Many fans like to talk trade scenarios but NFL teams are huge creatures of habit and unless the Raiders have fallen in love with a player, I don’t see them trading up.

What Are Their Needs Now?

The main needs are at middle linebacker, a defensive back, and another DL.  They probably will also look into a RB and WR in the later rounds.

Ezekiel Elliott will probably go to Philadelphia or the Giants.  A Running Back would be helpful to the Raiders as well but it’s not as big a need as people think.  As I said before, I’m not a fan of Raiders OC Bill Musgrave.  Not giving Marcel Reece and Jamize Olawale more carries is just ridiculous.  The lack of imagination in using Roy Helu Jr. last year also hurt the Raiders.  And to the writer that said Elliott was as good as Adrian Peterson in college?  Elliot isn’t even close.  Stop it.

Paralysis by Analysis:

I’ve been monitoring my draft picks for 16 years now.  I want to be right so I take evaluating players seriously.  Most just give brash comments and then move on to the next year but I want my followers to know they can trust my opinion.  We all will be wrong at times but I want to have a history of quality picks and predictions mixed in with my Matt Leinart’s.

People wonder why so many teams make mistakes in the NFL draft.  I think it’s because they over think it.  Paralysis by Analysis; over analyzing.  The more you look into something the more chance you will find fault in it.  Now NFL teams are using an arrest formula to predict how many arrests a player will have.  You can’t make this stuff up.

I think also NFL teams and experts are obsessed with athleticism over football talent.  Darrius Heyward-Bey had no business being the Raiders top pick; in fact he was on my no draft list and to the dismay of Raider fans who applauded the pick, I destroyed the choice on draft day.  DHB was picked purely because of his fast 40 time @ the NFL combines.  He really wasn’t even that good at Maryland.

Look at the old videos on Youtube.  I was watching the draft day video on Aaron Rodgers.  Experts were justifying why he was falling in the draft.  “He has bad hand placement; he has bad mechanics.  Look how high he keeps his hands.  He still has a chance to be a pretty good QB but Alex Smith by far is the best QB in the draft”.

From teams overreacting to Thurman Thomas’ knee, to Jerry Rice and Marcus Allen not being fast enough, the nitpicking gets to be a bit rough.  I’m not saying the other stuff isn’t valuable but as John Madden said, watch the games, not drills with players in gym shorts.  This is still football.  Now let’s look at each position and the possible first round pick for the 2016 NFL draft.

Defensive Line:

This is going to be interesting.  Many think that DL’s will fall in the draft because there are so many potential good ones.  It wouldn’t be a surprise but my feeling is that only QB is more important than a DL so if there is one you like then you pick him.  It will be fun to see.

Kevin Dodd:

I’m not a fan of this pick because in reality he had only 1 good year in college and his teammate; Shaq Lawson; was the one being double teamed most of the year which allowed him to be freed up.  I like Lawson better.  It wouldn’t be a tragedy to pick him but I think he’s overrated.  I think Dodd is a borderline 1^stround pick.  Not a fan.

Robert Nkemdiche:  

When I wrote on how Vernon Gholston would be a huge bust in the 2008 draft, Jets fans destroyed me.  Some Raider fans wanted to draft him.  In 3 years he ended up with ZERO sacks & never played again.  I also was ripped apart on ESPN when someone shared the preview article I wrote with me saying how Jadeveon Clowney would also be a bust; 1500 thumbs down.  This year I’m picking Nkemdiche as the poster child to avoid.  His stats were like theirs.

In 3 years Nkemdiche only had 7 sacks.  In his last 7 games last year he averaged 2 tackles a game.  His best college year he had 3 sacks.  For his career he averaged a little under 3 tackles a game.  If that excites you then then that is cool but I pass on him big time.  His football numbers don’t equal his athleticism.

AShawn Robinson:

His talent and work ethic are not questioned but his interviews are.  He’s a good guy but some think he’s really not that passionate about football and with players retiring early, that is a big issue.  This guy is a super hard worker.  He’s big and has a great motor as they say.  Nick Saban said he’s just learning how to pass rush and I think his push up the middle would be a great plus.  He was double teamed a lot and was told to play a lot of 2 gap so in reality he was a key to clogging up the middle.  As one scout said, he knows how to play and these guys are valuable.

Sheldon Rankins:

I like Rankins as well.  Like Robinson he’s raw as a pass rusher but scouts like him.  He is physical and is a good tackler and he would help the Raiders.

Shaq Lawson:

Even with being double teamed often throughout the year, Lawson thrived.  There were more than a few games where it was obvious he was the best player on the field.  I think he’s a special talent that can’t be passed up.  If Lawson and Rankins is there, I pick Lawson.

Defensive Back:

Mackenzie Alexander:

I think he’s the best cornerback in the draft.  Great instinct, cover skills and recovery speed.  He’s a film room junkie who works as hard as anyone in college football.  Confident, physical and tough and he plays with a swagger.  I love this guy.  Teams just stopped throwing his way.  He gave up 11 passes all last year and no touchdowns.  NFL scouts hate that he’s only 5 10” but I don’t care.  This guy is really good.  If you pick him, now you have a great nickel back who has time to learn the position.  TJ Carrie and Nelson and Nate Allen can play safety with Smith, Amerson & Alexander playing CB.  A good mix of youth and experience.

Vernon Hargreaves:

Oh the fickle NFL draft.  Remember when Hargreaves was in the top 5 of most everyone’s mock draft?  Not anymore.  In fact I just saw him falling as low as 16 now in an experts draft.  Another great athlete but he gave up 16.5 yards per pass play and struggled in Florida’s two toughest games; Michigan and Alabama.  Two months ago I said I liked Alexander over him and again got the idiot tag.  I’ll stick by what I said.

Linebacker:

There are slim pickings for MLB so it’s going to be tricky here.  There really is only 1 first rounder with Kentrell Brothers being the next best MLB after Reggie Ragland but most think he’s a mid to late 2^nd rounder.

Reggie Ragland:

Ragland is a classic Alabama linebacker who is a thumper.  He is a good tackler and very physical.  As I’ve said before, Alabama linebackers are a risk.  Nick Saban plays almost all zone and LB’s at Bama don’t have to cover RB’s man to man.  You literally don’t know if they can cover.  The Raiders found that out with Rolando McClain.  He wasn’t a good cover guy and the pick didn’t pan out.  I’m not a fan of this pick because of the risk but again; but their are slim pickings at MLB this year.

Darron Lee: 

Lee is the favorite for some but he is an OLB so I don’t get the love.  It’s also a huge risk.  Lee is a great athlete but he’s pretty lean for a LB position in the NFL and at times struggled against power blockers.  He also has been playing LB for only 2 years; that’s in his life.  He was a QB in high school and he played safety early on at OSU.  A great athlete and again, that’s what the NFL likes but he has a lot to learn.

Leonard Floyd:

Wow; this guy has talent.  I love his potential and I like him over Lee.  He needs to be consistent and with the right coaching he can be something special.  I would not be hurt by drafting Floyd and then getting a MLB in the later rounds.  If he’ll play hard every play, he can be special.  If the Raiders are looking at just talent, this guy is hard to pass up even though it doesn’t fix the MLB problem, but they could address it later.

Who will the Raiders pick?

If it was me I would take Lawson, Alexander and Floyd in that order.  Floyd is moving up the charts I think and if he is a top 10 pick I would not be surprised.  I would then pick a MLB in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.

No one really knows; not even the Raiders at this point; but I think the Raiders are going to go for the safest pick.  The draft has very slim pickings at MLB and they really need one.  As of now I see them drafting Reggie Ragland MLB out of Alabama.  He can definitely start right away and if you draft an MLB in the lower rounds, they may not be ready to start.  Ben Heeney is a nice backup but he’s not a full time starter IMHO.

Whoever they pick it will be another piece to help the Raiders attempt to be a playoff team.  It’s hard to realize that there has never been a Tweet or a Facebook post that has ever talked about a Raiders playoff game.  Facebook started in 2004 and Twitter in 2006.  Hopefully for the Raiders that will end this year.